Kim Jong-il & The Future of the Koreas

The announcement of Kim Jong-il's death two days ago, the Confucian mourning period having been observed, is an event the aftermath of which will be difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The 69 year old's death is hardly a surprise - he had been ailing for some time after all. The two enigmas as far as concerns the future of North Korea both relate to his designated successor, Kim Jong-un: namely, that we know next to nothing about this man, including how well prepared he is for the leadership.

As far as concerns the first of these points, experts believe that Kim Jong-un will follow a similar policy to his father and grandfather, with an emphasis on military development and specifically nuclear and atomic weapons. In short, a continuation of the policies of his father and grandfather, a continued grim outlook for Asian peace, the North Korean economy, and human rights. This is, however, largely guesswork - until last year, after all, we had no knowledge of what Kim Jong-un even looked like, so getting a good idea of how he will rule North Korea can't be too accurate. All this presupposes that he will rule, but that is, as previously mentioned, less than certain.

Because of his young age (no older than 29), the de facto power may end up in the hands of a person or persons outside of the Kim family, with a number of possiblities arising if this were to happen. The Kim dynasty may be phased out and come to an end. Or, perhaps, there will be a factional split in the party and a power struggle will ensue; if it is anything like the one between Deng Xiaoping and Hua Guofeng, then the regime may in fact come out stronger than before. Certainly, any such power struggle will be played out behind closed doors, and is unlikely to spiral out of control into some sort of democratic revolution - the best case scenario would be a power struggle that served to weaken the regime's power base in some way, and would in the long run lead to its end.

For the time being, even with the death of Kim Jong-il, a free and united Korea is a little more than a distant dream. I am sure Kim Jong-un, or any other successor to the late 'Great Man, Who Descended From Heaven', will be keen to see that it stays that way.