The Year's End

This shall be but a short post to celebrate the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012, using two poems from some of my favourite poets.

Year by year,

the monkey's mask

reveals the monkey.

-Basho

The ugiusu

Has begun to sing but still
In the falling snow
The cedar needles are white
At Ausaka Mountain.
-Emperor Gotoba

Kim Jong-il & The Future of the Koreas

The announcement of Kim Jong-il's death two days ago, the Confucian mourning period having been observed, is an event the aftermath of which will be difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The 69 year old's death is hardly a surprise - he had been ailing for some time after all. The two enigmas as far as concerns the future of North Korea both relate to his designated successor, Kim Jong-un: namely, that we know next to nothing about this man, including how well prepared he is for the leadership.

As far as concerns the first of these points, experts believe that Kim Jong-un will follow a similar policy to his father and grandfather, with an emphasis on military development and specifically nuclear and atomic weapons. In short, a continuation of the policies of his father and grandfather, a continued grim outlook for Asian peace, the North Korean economy, and human rights. This is, however, largely guesswork - until last year, after all, we had no knowledge of what Kim Jong-un even looked like, so getting a good idea of how he will rule North Korea can't be too accurate. All this presupposes that he will rule, but that is, as previously mentioned, less than certain.

Because of his young age (no older than 29), the de facto power may end up in the hands of a person or persons outside of the Kim family, with a number of possiblities arising if this were to happen. The Kim dynasty may be phased out and come to an end. Or, perhaps, there will be a factional split in the party and a power struggle will ensue; if it is anything like the one between Deng Xiaoping and Hua Guofeng, then the regime may in fact come out stronger than before. Certainly, any such power struggle will be played out behind closed doors, and is unlikely to spiral out of control into some sort of democratic revolution - the best case scenario would be a power struggle that served to weaken the regime's power base in some way, and would in the long run lead to its end.

For the time being, even with the death of Kim Jong-il, a free and united Korea is a little more than a distant dream. I am sure Kim Jong-un, or any other successor to the late 'Great Man, Who Descended From Heaven', will be keen to see that it stays that way.

Saif al-Islam Must Live

Many of the secrets of Lockerbie, the IRA, and other controversial acts in the Jamahiriya's erratic and often irresponsible foreign policy - for which it is primarily remembered outside of Libya - died with Muammar Gaddafi. For those victims of a foreign policy totally out of line with the direct democratic principles of the Third International Theory, questions will likely remain tragically unanswered (the barbarians are partially to blame for this), as any hope of closure evaporates into mist.

Saif al-Islam, the current leader of the Gaddafist movement, is not thought to be privy to such details, having been a mere child at the time. But Saif, whereabouts unknown, has one lethal weapon that he could use against the nations that brutally assassinated his father: his dealings with the West in the years before the Jamahiriya fell, circa 2004 to 2011, have given him great insight - and knowledge - of these countries. As such, he is a dangerous opponent in this respect, and it is in the interest of truth that he must stay alive.

As for the issue of fighting, it is time to accept that Libya's Gaddafi era is well and truly over. The dreams of the Jamahiriya became corrupted, they stagnated, and thus they were destroyed. Saif al-Islam, in the interest of his own security, should flee to Algeria and join his family, avoid the puppets at the ICC at all costs, and tell us in written and spoken form all the secrets he has amassed. Perhaps, one day in the distant future, the Third International Theory can be revived. But now is not that time.

RIP Muammar

RIP Muammar Gaddafi. May peace now return to Libya, following the sad death of its true leader: for there is a vacuum, and I care not who fills it. Let us all remember those poignant, true, and saddening last words: 'What did I ever do to you?'

Brother Leader, Stand Firm

Muammar Gaddafi is not finished yet. The fall of Tripoli to the armed gangs of the National Transitional Council, the murderers of countless black Africans trying simply to make a living, and the purveyors of an inferior democratic model than that of the Third International Theory, was a crushing blow. To anyone but the Brother Leader, it would have been the end. Instead, the Jamahiriyah relocated to Sirte, which continues to hold out against the rebellion.

The rebels are desperate to do anything to stop Gaddafi. They offer bounties to his inner circle. They have confirmed that they will take revenge, like petty men, by executing Gaddafi should he be captured. Clearly, an eye for an eye is still a valid concept for Mr Jalil and co. The murder of General Younes in July by fellow rebels showed this more than any other event in the history of the NTC.

At the end of the day, the Third International Theory is the solution to the problems of capitalism and democracy. To rebel against it, as many have since the creation of the Jamahiriyah, would be entirely wrong. It is not tyranny to prevent those who wish to pervert the course of direct and pure democracy with weak-willed demagoguism from doing so. And, were it not for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, then the Jamahiriyah would have continued to operate fully and properly from Tripoli. It was only the 'no-fly zone' that prevented the demagogues from being silenced.

True, the Gaddafis have abused their ideology and status, but this has only been the case since the world, at the behest of the USA, decided to try and cripple Libya's booming economy by imposing sanctions, in the hope that Gaddafi would change his ways or lose support. It took a long time for the latter to happen. It seems, luckily, that the former shall never become a reality. Gaddafi must stand firm. But, if he were to loose control over all Libya, rather than prevent development by the NTC. Should Mr Jalil and friends ever manage to implement their form of democracy, however, I would prefer that they allow Gaddafi, or one of his sons, to run on behalf of the Third International Theory.

Jack Layton

To say that I've ever agreed with Jack Layton's policies would be untrue. If I were a Canadian, I'd undoubtedly vote for the Conservative Party. But I do respect the late leader of the NDP; he was undoubtedly one of the better politicians in the western world. Layton became the party's leader in 2003, at a time when it had a mere 13 seats in Parliament, thus making it the 4th largest party by quite some way (the third largest, the Bloc Québécois, had 25 more seats).

Under Layton, this grew to 19 seats in 2004, then to 29 seats in 2006, then to 37 seats in 2008. The 2011 election seemed to greatly upset the status quo. Though the Conservatives won, the NDP surged to attain 103 seats, their highest electoral result ever, thus entering the role of opposition for the first time ever. In the same election, the Greens attained their first ever Parliamentary seat, and the Bloc Québécois were almost wiped out, going from 47 to 4 seats.

The key to Layton's success seems to be more than just the luck and political savvy that every politician needs to be a success. The 2011 campaign was bold and, ultimately, a well-deserved success for the NDP. Layton stated boldly his ambitions for Canada - to become Prime Minister. Layton argued passionately that his party had the best economic and social policies. The NDP confroted the Bloc Québécois in their stronghold and won; indeed, many NDP gains came from Quebec. Layton's charisma and sound policies (even those of us who disagree with them must admit they are indeed sound) were not alone in turning him into the Leader of the Opposition this year; it was also down to his radical new approach to the electoral process.

It remains to be seen whether or not the NP can continue the electoral success started by Layton. A letter written by Layton a mere two days before his death is full of optimism, but it remains to be see whether a new full-time leader - Layton's letter gives the impression this will take place in the new year - can continue the wave of optimism and electoral success ushered in by Layton.

Today, it was announced that Layton would be honoured with a rare state funeral. It is a fitting tribute to an extraordinary man in Canadian politics.

London Riots

I've contemplated posting about this for a while. Though the entire subject is a little dull for me - rioting is just a tragic reminder that there are still morons in the world - I feel compelled nevertheless to provide my personal view on the matter. Seeing as I have no connections to anyone affected, I feel I can speak with greater calm than those feeling vengeful, upset, or whatever else the aftermath of a riot feels like.

The left is, in this instance, wrong. People like Polly Toynbee and other sickening, patronising bullshitters who harp on about poverty, circumstances and other lofty ideals are only deluding themselves. They need to wake up to a few fundamental realities: except in a communist or socialist idyll (ie, a quixotic fantasy) can wealth be totally equal. Thus, some people will always be poorer, and others richer. It also follows that, were the poor wealthier, then the rich would be too, meaning that the goods, living conditions and societal status they would aspire to would be still more extravagent and advance than those of today. In such a circumstance, people at the bottom, or near it, would still feel trodden down upon and thus the need to steal would remain. It's been a constant of humanity ever since they first huddled together around the Euphrates in Mesapotamia of old to form Uruk, the first true settlement. By this logic, the Labour arguments of giving the rioters and their class things so as to remove the incentive to steal is flawed.

Plato quite rightly pointed out that bad men will always find ways round any laws, and good ones uphold their virtues (apart from little incidents of reneging, eg when sex is involved) in spite of any laws that may be in place. Plenty of the poorer people in London did not riot. Some who did not need to riot, from a financial and societal viewpoint, did. The root of these riots are not political, either. Once again, those who make this claim are living in an idealised fantasy where poverty is the sole cause of moral depravity.

The cause is culture and idiocy. Our culture caters too readily to idiots and encourages them to be as moronic and scummy as their inherent nature makes them. Rather than cure them with good literature, quality press and good education - the state must do more, and Gove is, for the latter -, they are left to wallow in reality television, the tabloid press, inane sports and gossip magazines. It affects their psyche and behaviour, and leads to a watering down of nationwide culture.

As for the solution, I am not so bothered so long as the punishments: punish only the individual, but punish to the extent of being a deterrent to others - ie, punish them more than usual. Breaking the law is one thing. Breaking the law in an organised and overtly destructive way is excessive, crass and opportunistic. These people must be punished in line with their actions, and some. Or their successors will never learn to behave like men, and will continue to writhe around in the dirt like animals.