Gaddafi will win in the long run

In this Libyan civil war, victory on the ground will eventually be that of the rebels. As sad a fact as it is, NATO is not going to be able to find a way out diplomatically and will not want to be defeated. Thus Gaddafi - for all of his resilience - will eventually fall from power. It is better for us to come to terms with this reality rather than attempt to convince ourselves otherwise. But what happens next will be a true testament to the ability of these armed gangs masquerading as rebels wanting democracy.

Post Gaddafi Libya will be one of chaos and turmoil. Despite western media efforts to polarise the conflict, there is a very even divide in the country in terms of support. If anything, it is Gaddafi who has the more support. And why not? It is Gaddafi who renegotiated oil contracts and, before Reagan bombed Libya and most of the world imposed sanctions on it in the 1980s, the standard of living for a Libyan was better than that of an American. Even today, it is Africa's wealthiest country, and wealthier than a fair few European nations. Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim pointed out, quite rightly, that the fact that formerly rebel held towns such as Zawiyah and Zintan were liberated and accepted Gaddafi control. If this were truly a popular uprising, this would not be possible. Similarly, the Gaddafi government has only killed those civilians who took up arms against them - as any western government undoubtedly would. Jalil and his National Transitional Council have used the democracy smokescreen to lure the west into what is a poorly organised rebellion with no more than half of Libyans supporting it.

For a disorganised group of soldiers and politicians - who number just 31, despite media reports of 'widespread defections' - establishing order once all Gaddafi's defences have been bombed will not be easy. Tripoli, a city of 1.7 million people (in a nation of 6 million) largely supports Gaddafi. Many in the Tripolitania and Fezzan tribal areas do. Libya has never tried to have a European democratic system whatsoever; countries like Egypt and Tunisia used it as a facade, whereas Gaddafi has pursued his vision of democracy; the Jamahiriya. Any attempt, therefore, at imposing a European democratic system will require a great deal of time, effort and organisation. This will be made more difficult by those who do not want to see the Jamahiriya gone.

The lasting effect of Gaddafi and his rule will make the transition difficult and likely quite bloody. I resent the rebels and western medai for ignoring Gaddafi ceasefires; everytime Gaddafi's forces declare a ceasefire, the rebel forces continue to engage Gaddafi's, leaving them no option but to retaliate. Then the rebels claim that the Gaddafi forces 'do not uphold' their ceasefire, and use it as a pretext to continue fighting. Gaddafi and his government are more than happy to compromise, and the African Union deal was a very reasonable one. It was the rebels who rejected it and all other attempts at peace. They are only prolonging this civil war by refusing to compromise and let Gaddafi initiate reform - which would be the sensible option which would do the least harm to the people; trying to build a European democracy from the ground up is going to take some turbulent years if it even succeeds.

I feel that Libyan government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim, in this unfortunately titled video, makes some very good points about the civil war. The western media can only shield us from fact for so long.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MB-wumHm9xY